This chap is an economist. Interesting article on some subjects, some are totally unaddressed: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-new-1970s
The 8’th Edition of a classic: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofbooks/2023/07/04/q-and-a-with-robert-mccauley-on-manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/
For all the charts: https://assets.realclear.com/files/2023/07/2214_deutsche.pdf
That’s 2 economists that simply ignore fiscal dominance. Interesting. While most (all) of the above charts are pretty pessimistic moving forward, they would be catastrophic if you factored in fiscal dominance.
Meanwhile any number of ‘market analysts’ are becoming increasingly enamoured of a new ‘bull market’. It is simply a bear market rally. Bear markets are notoriously difficult to trade due to huge rallies against the secular trend, as we have currently.
Certainly there are 2 major fundamental factors supporting the bull rally: (i) onshoring capital expenditures and (ii) due to close to zero house sales, continued house construction. They are and have delayed the onset of the recession. They will not prevent it.
jog on
duc
le duc 